2023 AL Rookie of the Year: Predictions, Analysis and Bets

The sun is shining, players returned to camp and finally, baseball is back.

Spring games are officially underway, and before we know it, Opening Day will be here.

As the 2023 season approaches and fresh faces arrive to for each team, some young stars are set to begin their careers. And many–if not all–have All-Star hopes.

Last year, the American League produced a surreal amount of young talent, headlined by Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, and Steven Kwan among many others.

With that promising crop just a year removed, will fans see a similar surge of young talent this season? Let’s look at who could make that a reality and win AL Rookie of the Year.

Honorable Mentions: Masataka Yoshita, OF, Red Sox; Triston Casas, 1B, Red Sox; Hunter Brown, RHP, Astros; Royce Lewis, SS, Twins; Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers. 

Gunnar Henderson, INF, Baltimore Orioles

The 21-year-old infielder comes into the 2023 season as the odds-on favorite to win the American League Rookie of the Year award, sitting around +250 on most books. That’s for good reason.

Henderson was drafted in the second round of the 2019 MLB Amateur Draft out of John T. Morgan Academy in Selma, Alabama and flew through the Orioles minor league system, hitting every necessary checkpoint along the way.

In his first full season in 2021 with Baltimore’s system, Henderson played his way from A+ to AA, compiling a .258/.350/.476 line with 17 home runs, 74 RBIs and 16 stolen bases.

Those numbers are good. But it was 2022 when Henderson truly broke out.

He enjoyed the best stretch of his minor league career early on in AA ball as he raised his batting average over 60 points and his on-base percentage over 100 points before being called up to AAA.

He continued to impress after being promoted, and at the ripe age of 21, while Baltimore surged toward a late-season playoff push, the O’s called Henderson up in late August to handle third base.

Although Baltimore wasn’t able to squeak their way into the playoffs, the team’s young talent did not disappoint and assured Orioles fans that they will soon be watching October baseball.

In 34 MLB games, Henderson slashed .259/.349/.440 with 4 home runs and 18 RBI in just 116 at-bats. He recorded 11 multi-hit games in meaningful games for the O’s and managed an OPS+ that was 23 percent above league average.

In the field, Henderson committed just a single error in 106 defensive chances, and his utility at different positions adds even more value.

He started 17 big league games at 3B but also saw time at DH, SS, and even 2B.

No matter where he ends up in the infield, he appears destined to carry his weight at the plate.

There is little doubt that Henderson makes the big league team out of Spring Training, placing him right in the middle of a young, dangerous Orioles lineup.

It makes sense to have the Orioles young star as the betting favorite, but he’s not the only talent in Baltimore looking to break out in the 2023 season. 

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Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles 

The depth and talent of Baltimore’s farm system strikes again.

Rodriguez comes into the 2023 season with +900 odds to take home the American League Rookie of the Year crown.

But perhaps even more importantly, Rodriguez has the chance to become the ace Baltimore has been missing since the days of Mike Mussina.

Okay, that’s a bit of a long shot, but if anyone can do it, it’s Grayson Rodriguez.

Rodriguez was drafted with the 11th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Amateur draft out of Central Heights High School in Nacogdoches, Texas.

Rodriguez’ numbers show consistent dominance throughout his Minor League career.

Spanning from Rookie Ball in 2018 to Triple A Norfolk in 2022, Rodriguez has compiled a record of 25-9 with a 2.47 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP through 69 games and 292 innings.

Rodriguez’ strikeout ability is perhaps his best asset.

To this point, he has compiled an absurd 12.9 SO/9 while only allowing 3 BB/9.

To put it simply, he is really good at pitching.

So much so that it’s not out of the realm of possibility he stops at Rookie of the Year for the American League. He may also receive votes for Cy Young.

Yeah, he’s that good.

The Orioles will likely rely on the young gun Rodriguez and now veteran John Means, who is set to return from Tommy John, to bolster the starting staff this season.

Baltimore also added left-hander Cole Irvin to the mix from the Oakland Athletics, setting up what could be a sneaky impressive rotation.

All of this is setting up like a dream for the young right hander, making it a more than realistic goal to become the O’s frontman for many years to come.

Ironically, Rodriguez’ best competition for the Rookie of the Year nod might be playing in black and orange with him.

No pitcher has won AL Rookie of the Year since Michael Fulmer in 2016–at least, none that also hit proficiently–which perhaps explains Rodriguez’ +900 odds.

Nevertheless, expect a big year from the young flamethrower as he projects to see a hefty amount of Major League starts this year.

But there is one more long shot odds-wise that has some promise for the award.

Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees

Frankly, the only reason Anthony Volpe is considered a long shot is because his big league time is unknown, especially at the time of writing this.

You could currently get Volpe to win Rookie of the Year at odds as high as +1800.

A power hitting shortstop playing for the Yankees sounds too good to be true for this award, but that’s Volpe.

The Yankees selected Volpe with the 30th overall pick in the 2019 MLB Amateur draft out of Delbarton School in Morristown, New Jersey.

When Minor League Baseball resumed in 2021, he immediately turned heads. In a combination of 109 games and 513 plate appearances between A+ and A ball, Volpe posted a .294/.423/.604 line with a staggering 27 homers and 86 RBIs.

That’s quite the first impression to leave on the most storied franchise in baseball.

Volpe brought more of the same in 2022, just against more difficult competition in AA and AAA.

Between the two leagues, he produced slash lines of .249/.342/.460 with 21 more home runs and 65 RBI.

If there’s one thing Volpe has proved thus far, the power is real.

If he’s able to maintain, or even surpass, the 20 HR mark year in and year out, we’ll be hearing a lot about Anthony Volpe.

There’s no reason to believe that couldn’t begin with a breakout rookie season.